https://michaeltsnyder.substack.com/p/the-probability-of-a-recession-happening?
If they are actually telling us that a recession is coming this time around, how bad is it going to be? In 2008, officials kept assuring us over and over again that there wouldn’t be a recession, and then we plunged into the greatest economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. But here in 2023, what is coming is so obvious that nobody can deny what is happening. The economy is already starting to come apart at the seams all around us, and the “experts” at the Federal Reserve openly acknowledge that they are making things even worse by hiking interest rates. Pretty much everyone agrees that rougher times are ahead of us, and “a probability model from the New York Federal Reserve” is now projecting that there is a 68.2 percent chance that there will be a recession within the next 12 months…
The odds that the United States will fall into a recession at some point over the next 12 months have risen to a 40-year high, according to a probability model from the New York Federal Reserve.
The probability that the country will enter a recession within the next year has risen to 68.2 percent, according to the New York Fed, which is the highest level since 1982.
The Fed’s recession risk indicator is now greater than it was in November 2007, not long before the subprime crisis, when it stood at 40 percent.