Before the invasion of Ukraine, most Finns and Swedes were lukewarm about joining NATO. All that has changed: 76% of Finns now want Finland in NATO, and so do more than 60% of Swedes. Finland has already declared its intention to seek NATO membership; Sweden is just about to follow suit. NATO’s Secretary-General, Jens Stoltenberg, has announced that both countries would be “welcomed with open arms.”
Well, not quite. One set of arms that will remain resolutely closed belong to the Turkish President, the dour and difficult Recep Tayyip Erdogan. He has already announced that he will oppose membership in NATO for both countries. Since approval of new members of NATO requires a unanimous vote, Turkey by itself can keep both Sweden and Finland out.