*‘Let’s not be naïve’: Coordinated invasions by China, Russia loom as plausible scenario*
*FPI* / *July 10, 2025*
*Geostrategy-Direct* <geostrategy-direct.com/>
*By** Richard Fisher*
The idea of a joint China-Russia threat is not new; During his first term, President Trump’s December 2017 National Security Strategy stated: “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.”
[image: https://www.worldtribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2threats.jpg]Threat of military invasion coordination: Chinese dictator Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin meet at the October 2024 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Kazan, Russia. / Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In its October 2022 National Security Strategy, the Biden Administration recognized the threat from China and Russia, but did not explicitly link them, saying: “Russia and the PRC pose different challenges. Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system… The PRC, by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order…”
But since the August 2005 Shanghai Cooperation Organization “Peace Mission” exercises, in which Russia sent 1,800 troops plus Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers to China’s Shandong Peninsula, Chinese and Russian military cooperation has increased and become more profound.
From Nov. 29-30, 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers, fighters and support aircraft conducted their 9th joint air exercise, in which People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) H-6N bombers staged out of a Russian base to threaten U.S. military bases in Alaska.
Previous China-Russia joint force exercises have seen Russian troops operate Chinese armored vehicles while Russia has sold advanced missile-defense early warning radar technology to China, to aid its building of a national missile defense.
But perhaps what has most influenced the idea that China and Russia are capable of alliance-like military coordination has been China’s generous economic and increasing military technology support for Russia’s 2022 war to conquer Ukraine.
This now includes deployment of Chinese “mercenary” troops and Russian training of Chinese troops in new Ukraine-tested military operations, as well as coordination with Russia of North Korea’s deployment of troops and sale of missiles and artillery weapons to Russia.
In fact, during a marathon July 2 4-hour meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made clear to the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas that China wanted Russia to win its horrific war in Ukraine.
This was first reported on July 4 by the South China Morning Post, saying:
*“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.”*
[image: https://geostrategy-direct.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/hmswales.jpg]Recognition of China’s threat to European security: on June 23, 2025 the British Royal Navy carrier HMS Prince of Wales arrived for a visit to Singapore: / UK Ministry of Defense
Though appropriate and assuring coming from an Allies source, it was still surprising that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-Gen. Mark Rutte, a former military leader from the Netherlands, would issue the most stark warning from any official source to date of China-Russia alliance-like military cooperation.
In a wide-ranging July 5 New York Times interview, Secretary Gen. Mark Rutte warned of a simultaneous two-front war, one in which a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coordinated with new Russian military action in Europe.
After rejecting the Time’s interviewer’s accusation that the Trump Administration “has never fully committed to coming to Europe’s defense,” Rutte reminded that Europe and the U.S. face security threats in the Atlantic and Pacific, saying:
*“There’s an increasing realization, and let’s not be naïve about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory.’ That is most likely the way this will progress.”*
That’s very clear, Rutte is suggesting that when China decides to invade Taiwan, it will be supported by Russia “in Europe by attacking NATO territory,” or military action beyond Ukraine.
*FPI* / *July 10, 2025*
*Geostrategy-Direct* <geostrategy-direct.com/>
*By** Richard Fisher*
The idea of a joint China-Russia threat is not new; During his first term, President Trump’s December 2017 National Security Strategy stated: “China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity.”
[image: https://www.worldtribune.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/2threats.jpg]Threat of military invasion coordination: Chinese dictator Xi Jinping and Russian dictator Vladimir Putin meet at the October 2024 BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) summit in Kazan, Russia. / Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs
In its October 2022 National Security Strategy, the Biden Administration recognized the threat from China and Russia, but did not explicitly link them, saying: “Russia and the PRC pose different challenges. Russia poses an immediate threat to the free and open international system… The PRC, by contrast, is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order…”
But since the August 2005 Shanghai Cooperation Organization “Peace Mission” exercises, in which Russia sent 1,800 troops plus Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers to China’s Shandong Peninsula, Chinese and Russian military cooperation has increased and become more profound.
From Nov. 29-30, 2024, Chinese and Russian bombers, fighters and support aircraft conducted their 9th joint air exercise, in which People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) H-6N bombers staged out of a Russian base to threaten U.S. military bases in Alaska.
Previous China-Russia joint force exercises have seen Russian troops operate Chinese armored vehicles while Russia has sold advanced missile-defense early warning radar technology to China, to aid its building of a national missile defense.
But perhaps what has most influenced the idea that China and Russia are capable of alliance-like military coordination has been China’s generous economic and increasing military technology support for Russia’s 2022 war to conquer Ukraine.
This now includes deployment of Chinese “mercenary” troops and Russian training of Chinese troops in new Ukraine-tested military operations, as well as coordination with Russia of North Korea’s deployment of troops and sale of missiles and artillery weapons to Russia.
In fact, during a marathon July 2 4-hour meeting, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made clear to the European Union’s top diplomat Kaja Kallas that China wanted Russia to win its horrific war in Ukraine.
This was first reported on July 4 by the South China Morning Post, saying:
*“Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told the European Union’s top diplomat on Wednesday that Beijing did not want to see a Russian loss in Ukraine because it feared the United States would then shift its whole focus to Beijing, according to several people familiar with the exchange.”*
[image: https://geostrategy-direct.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/hmswales.jpg]Recognition of China’s threat to European security: on June 23, 2025 the British Royal Navy carrier HMS Prince of Wales arrived for a visit to Singapore: / UK Ministry of Defense
Though appropriate and assuring coming from an Allies source, it was still surprising that North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Secretary-Gen. Mark Rutte, a former military leader from the Netherlands, would issue the most stark warning from any official source to date of China-Russia alliance-like military cooperation.
In a wide-ranging July 5 New York Times interview, Secretary Gen. Mark Rutte warned of a simultaneous two-front war, one in which a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coordinated with new Russian military action in Europe.
After rejecting the Time’s interviewer’s accusation that the Trump Administration “has never fully committed to coming to Europe’s defense,” Rutte reminded that Europe and the U.S. face security threats in the Atlantic and Pacific, saying:
*“There’s an increasing realization, and let’s not be naïve about this: If Xi Jinping would attack Taiwan, he would first make sure that he makes a call to his very junior partner in all of this, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, residing in Moscow, and telling him, ‘Hey, I’m going to do this, and I need you to to keep them busy in Europe by attacking NATO territory.’ That is most likely the way this will progress.”*
That’s very clear, Rutte is suggesting that when China decides to invade Taiwan, it will be supported by Russia “in Europe by attacking NATO territory,” or military action beyond Ukraine.
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